45 minutes ago
1
ARTICLE AD BOX
Well, so much for the robot takeover.
Last week, I kicked off a season-long experiment in which I go head-to-head with ChatGPT on NFL bets. I also openly predicted that artificial intelligence would wipe the floor with me. It's important to be nice to our future overlords and pray that they show mercy.
Apparently, ChatGPT felt sorry for me because it proceeded to go 0-5.
Meanwhile, I finished 3-2 and gained 0.99 units. That’s hardly the kind of week that makes the guys in Vegas suspicious, but it looks spectacular next to ChatGPT’s 5.23-unit loss.
One week is obviously far too small a sample to draw any sweeping conclusions. So, naturally, I’m going to draw one anyway: humanity is safe. At least for now.
NFL WEEK 1 PROPER REACTIONS: RAMS PANIC, BEARS HYPE AND CHARGERS DOUBTS NEED PATIENCE AFTER ONE GAME
The rules remain the same. ChatGPT and I each make our five best bets using the same set of odds, and no selection can be priced worse than -120. Every wager is sized to win one unit, which means a -110 favorite risks 1.10 units to win one, while a +110 underdog risks approximately 0.91 units to win one.
Before we get to the Week 2 picks, let’s review the opening week.
The Packers losing at plus money softened the damage, and hitting both the Bears spread and Raiders-Dolphins under secured a profitable opening week. We were one garbage-time Deshaun Watson touchdown away from cashing a 4-1 week, but that's why they call it gambling.
Honestly, I felt pretty good about the process. The Packers were the far superior team for a large portion of the game before laying an egg and, as mentioned, the over only hit in Browns-Jags because of a 46-yard touchdown in the final two minutes of a blowout.
Five bets. Five losses. Woof.
There weren’t many bad beats hiding in the wreckage, either. Detroit won but failed to cover, while Houston, Los Angeles and Green Bay all lost outright. The Buccaneers and Bengals also sailed past the total.
ChatGPT spent nearly 20 minutes analyzing every eligible spread, total and moneyline before producing its card. Apparently, it needed another 20.
SEASON REPORT CARD
DAN: 3-2, +0.99 units
GPT: 0-5, -5.23 units
THE CRAIG CARTON SHOW–UNFILTERED, UNAPOLOGETIC AND UNMISSABLE. DOWNLOAD HIS DAILY PODCAST NOW!
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1 p.m. ET
It's terrifying to back the Browns after that putrid Week 1 performance, I get it. But the lookahead line, which was posted before Week 1 results could influence the market, had the Browns +6, so oddsmakers have baked in how bad the Browns looked and moved them to more than a touchdown underdog. And, let's be honest, the Buccaneers didn't play all that well, either. I think this is too much of an overcorrection and the public is chomping at the bit to bet against the Browns. We're going to fade the public here and take the points.
This is a pure number play, and the move from Cleveland +6 to +8 is meaningful. Still, the Browns’ offensive-line concerns and Deshaun Watson’s turnover risk give Tampa Bay several paths to create separation, so I would lean toward taking the points but stop short of betting it.
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets, 1 p.m. ET
Week 2 is a great time to fade Week 1 perceptions, and this game is a perfect example. Everyone is piling on the Packers after they blew a double-digit second-half lead to the Carson Wentz-led Minnesota Vikings (rightfully so).
NFL WEEK 1 TAKEAWAYS: BENGALS FLASH CONTENDER UPSIDE, BEARS EXPLODE AND PACKERS COLLAPSE
But the truth is that Green Bay is still a far superior team to New York, which managed to beat lowly Tennessee in Week 1. The lookahead line on this one was Packers -5½, so again, there's been an overcorrection. I just don't see it. I expect Green Bay to compete for an NFC North title and I expect the Jets to be better than last season, but not a team that should hang with an already desperate and hungry Packers team.
I agree with fading the Week 1 overreaction, but crossing the key number of three makes this less appealing. Green Bay has the more talented roster, but Geno Smith has repeatedly succeeded against Jonathan Gannon-coached defenses, so I would have needed Packers -3 to make the bet.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
With Tua Tagovailoa still not practicing and uncertainty surrounding Atlanta's Week 2 starter, that's not good news for points. The Falcons only scored 13 in Week 1, but this total is 44 because the Panthers surrendered 59 points to the Bears. Obviously, I don't see a repeat coming. I think with the Panthers installed as favorites, they want to control the pace here and that means a heavy dose of Chuba Hubbard, A.J. Dillon and Jonathon Brooks.
Plus, Atlanta is going to lean on Bijan Robinson a lot to compensate for the quarterback issues and the spread isn't large enough to think this will be a blowout. I see this as a low-scoring game with limited possessions, especially in a divisional matchup.
This is my favorite pick on Dan’s card. Atlanta’s quarterback uncertainty should produce a conservative, run-heavy game plan, while Carolina has every reason to slow the game down after surrendering 59 points in Week 1. The Panthers’ defense creates some risk, but 44 is high enough to make the under playable.
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, 4:25 p.m. ET
We won money last week taking the Commanders as underdogs against an NFC East rival and I see no reason not to go back to the well here. Yes, public sentiment turned a bit on Dallas after the no-show performance against the Giants, but I still think people are in on the Cowboys and out on the Commanders. Washington looked far more impressive than Dallas last week and showed a lot on the road against Philadelphia. One might think home-field advantage helps the Cowboys, and it does, but they might be a little tight in front of a home crowd desperate for a win. Also, the Commanders are built like a turf team, so I think that mitigates the advantage, as well.
Washington was competitive against a much stronger opponent in Week 1, while Dallas was thoroughly outplayed at home by the Giants. Getting more than a field goal is valuable, although the Commanders’ growing injury list, particularly in the defensive front seven, keeps this from being one of my five best bets.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, 4:05 p.m. ET
It might seem like I'm relying too heavily on lookahead line changes and that's because ... I am. I believe that there is no bigger overreaction week in all sports than the one that follows Week 1 in the NFL. People are already burying the Chargers and this line moved from nearly double-digits (Chargers -9½) to under the key number of 7.
This feels like an overreaction to Week 1, where the Chargers turned in the worst performance of any team, at least relative to preseason expectations. I expect both the offense and defense to play a lot better. The Raiders beat up on the weak Dolphins, which covered up that Kirk Cousins threw two picks and just didn't look very good. He's going to have to throw a lot more in this one and that's better news for the Chargers than it is for the Raiders.
The adjustment from Chargers -9½ to -6½ appears excessive after one terrible performance. Las Vegas committed four turnovers despite beating Miami, and Kirk Cousins now faces a defense with far more talent. Getting Los Angeles below the key number of seven makes this my second-favorite pick on Dan’s card.
For full transparency, I decided to upgrade the GPT model this week to see if it would produce better results. After using GPT-5.6 Sol with max reasoning in Week 1, I used GPT-6 Pro, powered by GPT-6 Astra, for Week 2. Then, I fed it the OddsChecker board as it appeared Thursday at 3 p.m. ET and gave it the following prompt:
"Pick your five best bets for Week 2 based on the odds provided. No bet can be priced worse than -120. Review every spread, total and moneyline that falls within those parameters and determine whether it belongs among your five picks. Explain exactly why you’re selecting each of the five bets. Also explain exactly why you’re passing on the eligible bets you don’t select. Use at least 10 different sources for each game so you have a broad understanding of everything surrounding each game."
After nearly 35 minutes of thinking, here’s what it came up with.
Editor’s note: Despite being instructed to review at least 10 sources for each game, ChatGPT incorrectly claimed that Denver played an overtime game in Week 1. The Broncos lost to Kansas City, 31-10, in regulation. GPT also incorrectly identified Pittsburgh’s Marquise Brown as being on injured reserve. New England receiver A.J. Brown is the player on injured reserve. Those are fixed below, but we wanted to be fully transparent.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, 1 p.m. ET
Minnesota’s Week 1 score concealed an offense that averaged only 3.9 yards per play and produced just five gains of at least 10 yards. With Kyler Murray in concussion protocol and Jordan Mason on injured reserve, the Vikings may struggle to generate explosive plays or maintain efficiency.
GPT’s projected score: Bears 24, Vikings 20
GPT coming after my heart again with another under and I LOVE this bet. The Bears’ historic 59-point Week 1 outburst means the public is likely to pour money into the over, so this is a great spot to zig when the betting public zags.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots, 1 p.m. ET
Both offenses averaged approximately 4.1 yards per play in Week 1, and New England enters the game without A.J. Brown, who was placed on injured reserve. New England’s defense should limit explosive plays and force Pittsburgh to sustain long drives.
GPT’s projected score: Patriots 21, Steelers 17
I'm a sucker for under bets, so GPT clearly knows the way to my heart. After a historic Week 1 where it seemed like no defenses showed up, it seems likely that some regression is due for Week 2. Neither of these offenses inspired much confidence in Week 1, so I'm not against this play either.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos, 4:05 p.m. ET
Jacksonville’s offense showed a coherent identity in Week 1, and Trevor Lawrence enters this matchup playing efficient football. Denver has to correct several offensive problems on a short week after an ugly Monday Night Football loss, while Jacksonville receives the full protection of a field goal.
GPT’s projected score: Jaguars 24, Broncos 23
OK, I don't hate this look at all. Jacksonville wasn't really tested in Week 1, but they handled business and blew out the lowly Browns. The Broncos, meanwhile, looked like a mess. I thought Denver was overrated coming into the season, and it's possible Jacksonville is actually the better team.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET
Indianapolis allowed over 500 yards in its opening game and is already adjusting its defensive communication system. Kansas City should create sustained scoring opportunities against that defense, and the spread remains below the key number of seven.
GPT’s projected score: Chiefs 30, Colts 20
OK, maybe GPT didn't learn anything, and it's going right back to the well with a team that over-performed in Week 1 (Kansas City) laying a touchdown against a team that underperformed in Week 1 (Indianapolis). That's not a spot I ever want to be in.
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams, Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET
The Giants’ offense looked functional in Week 1, while the Rams’ pass rush takes a significant hit with Myles Garrett on injured reserve. Getting a full seven points at nearly even money provides value in a matchup that projects to stay within one possession.
GPT’s projected score: Rams 27, Giants 23
It seems like GPT learned its lesson about backing touchdown favorites in Week 1 and decided to flip to the other side. The problem is that the Giants are a bit overrated after demolishing the Cowboys and the Rams are a bit underrated after their terrible performance in Australia against the 49ers. This is a pass for me, but I actually lean LA, especially since Sean McVay had extra time to prepare.
OK, that's it for Week 2! Check back next week to see how we both did. Follow along throughout the season as we try to answer the most important question currently facing the United States of America: Who is better at betting on the NFL, humans or robots?
English (US) ·